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INSTANT INSIGHT:  U.S. 2020 ELECTION

The 2020 U.S. presidential election is fast approaching. Our Research team offers some preliminary thoughts on how the election might impact the property markets.

Who will win and what it means for property?  

  • Property has performed well under both parties. Since 1979, NCREIF property index returns have averaged better than 8.5% annually under various Democratic and Republican administrations.
  • Rather than elections, the cycle, the economy, interest rates, COVID-19 and geopolitical events are the areas to focus on in determining the impact on the leasing fundamentals and property values.
  • Longer-term, different administrations have different spending priorities that will impact where growth occurs across the nation and what industries have greater growth opportunity.
  • The impact on property will lag the election results, but it will be important to “follow the money” to identify potential opportunities or risks.

Read more about how the 2020 U.S. Presidential, Congressional and Senate election results may impact property.

GLOBAL OFFICE IMPACT STUDY & RECOVERY TIMING REPORT

Part 1 of our Series "New Perspective: From Pandemic to Performance"

COVID-19 is disrupting the economy, accelerating shifts and creating structural changes that will persist for years. Several forces are at play—from office-using job losses, to higher vacancy and downward pressure on rental rates, to an increase in the share of employees who will now work from home either permanently or more regularly.

In this study:

  • We examine both the aggregate cyclical and structural impacts on the office sector’s fundamentals.
  • We present three forecast scenarios that illustrate probable and/or possible recovery timing based on the information at hand today.

Download the study and register for the webinar on September 30 (Americas & EMEA)  to hear authors Chief Economist, Kevin Thorpe, and Global Head of Forecasting, Rebecca Rockey, discuss key findings from the study and forecasts for the office market.

 

Download the Study>

 

Register for Webinar>

Florida Employment Report | August 2020

Florida lost 1.2 million jobs in the initial three months of the pandemic and has since gained back over half of the jobs lost, +631,600 jobs.

The pace of job improvement slowed on a month-to-month basis, with payrolls only increasing by 57,900 jobs in August, or +0.7%, while the unemployment rate fell 400 basis points to 7.4%.

As more markets and industries opened over the summer, the employment picture improved. The momentum in June and July softened as August hiring slowed due to uncertainty surrounding new COVID-19 hot spots for infection and uneven consumer demand.

Oxford Economics reports that the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) decelerated to 1.2% in August, from 2% in July and 3.1% in June. While labor market, financial and business sentiment data boosted the headline, credit conditions, housing data and manufacturing orders dragged.

Consumer sentiment perked up a bit in early September, with consumers feeling better about current economic conditions and the outlook going forward. Nonetheless, sentiment remains depressed relative to pre-pandemic standards and that has translated into slowing momentum in consumer spending following the initial snapback.

Download The Report>

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