Nearly nine years into the current cycle, the U.S. economy is strong and getting stronger. The leading indicators that correlate well with the property markets are in excellent shape.
Of course, there is no shortage of anxiety either; there never really is. Volatility is up this year, interest rates have moved higher, the yield curve has flattened, and trade tensions are escalating. So where do we go from here?
Our mid-year outlook shares perspective on the following topics:
- Where we are in the economic and leasing cycle
- What higher interest rates mean for CRE values
- The probability of a full-blown trade war and its potential impact for the property markets
- How capital is shifting and what capital is targeting
Click here to download and read our latest economic and CRE outlook to learn more.
Strong Market Fundamentals
The Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) saw significant job growth in the second quarter of 2018. The region continued to be a
magnet for business relocations and expansions which fueled solid gains in population. The unemployment rate fell to 3.2% in May, down -70 basis points (bps) over the last 12 months with the addition of 22,400 new jobs for an annual job growth rate of 3.2%.
Professional and business services accounted for a quarter of all new jobs created in the past year. Expansion by office-using firms and organic growth in the economy directly benefited the health of the overall office market.
Jobs in the construction sector showed the highest percent growth, up +8.0% year-over-year with +3,500 new jobs. Trade, transportation & utilities had more jobs created in the last twelve months with only a +2.9% growth rate.
In today’s commercial office real estate market, updated amenities satisfy our integrated, work-filled, yet socially-driven, productive lives. Amenities that were once deemed modern (i.e. conference rooms, cafeterias, and gyms) have become a standard and are making way for the future generation’s work environment. Landlords are seeking ways to retain and attract new companies by meeting tenant demand for hospitality comforts at the office, adding collaborative indoor/outdoor environments, recreational space, concession stations, focus rooms, laptop bars, and even places to sleep.